22 April 2026

Expectation Arbitrage: The Real Edge in Today’s Markets

Many investors correctly identify the next big trend. Far fewer profit from it. Being directionally right is only part of the equation, because markets reward outcomes relative to expectations.

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15 April 2026

Liquid Access to Illiquid Markets: Innovation, or an Illusion?

Everyone wants liquid access to private markets, but few are asking what happens when that liquidity is tested. Private markets have always carried a certain mystique. Access is limited, opportunities are selective, and returns, at least in theory, can be differentiated from the public market cycle.

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08 April 2026

British Steel and the New Rules of State Intervention

This isn’t just a potential bailout, it’s a signal. At first glance, the UK government’s move towards fully nationalising British Steel looks like a familiar story: a struggling industrial asset, mounting losses, and state intervention as a last resort.

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01 April 2026

From Oil to Everything: Understanding Market Transmission in a Fragmenting Macro Regime

Markets do not reprice in response to events. They reprice because of how those events propagate through the system. The recent escalation in Middle East tensions and the resulting disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz are a case in point. At face value, this is an energy shock. In reality, it is a multi-channel transmission event with implications that extend well beyond oil.

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25 March 2026

Cash Is Back. But Is It Quietly Losing Value?

Investors are moving back into cash at the fastest pace since the pandemic - a sharp and telling shift in positioning. Recent data shows average cash holdings have risen to 4.3% of assets under management in March, up from 3.4% in February - the largest monthly increase since March 2020. Just weeks earlier, allocations were sitting near record lows at 3.2%, reflecting a far more optimistic outlook

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18 March 2026

Why Oil Still Dominates the Global Economy

Markets often treat energy as just another commodity when in reality; it is something far more fundamental. Every major expansion in civilisation, from the Industrial Revolution to the age of globalisation, has followed the discovery of more concentrated forms of energy. Coal powered industrialisation and oil powered the modern global economy.

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