11 March 2026

Markets as Ecosystems: What Evolution and Swarm Behaviour Reveal About Alpha and Crowded Trades

Financial markets are often described as machines governed by models, equilibrium and rational expectations. In practice, however, they behave far more like complex ecosystems. Yet anyone who has traded through a liquidity shock or watched a crowded strategy unwind knows markets rarely behave so neatly.

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04 March 2026

Commodities Are Moving Again: Cyclical Bounce or the Early Stages of Something Bigger?

After several quiet years, commodities are stirring with intent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has climbed to its highest level since early 2023. Copper is advancing. US natural gas has surged. Agricultural contracts have firmed, and oil has re-entered the spotlight, not quietly, but with geopolitical force.

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25 February 2026

If Markets Get It Right in the End… Why Are We So Obsessed With Explaining Them?

There’s a comforting phrase investors like to repeat: “Markets get it right in the end.” It suggests that short-term volatility is simply noise, that prices eventually converge with fundamentals, and that patient capital will ultimately be rewarded. It’s rational, reassuring, and widely accepted.

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18 February 2026

The 100-Year AI Bet: Visionary Capital Allocation or Late-Cycle Excess?

When a company issues a 100-year bond, it isn’t just raising capital; it is making a statement. Last week, Alphabet sold a £1 billion 100-year sterling bond at a 6.125% coupon as part of a broader multi-currency debt raise totalling roughly $20 billion. Demand for the bond was nearly ten times oversubscribed.

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11 February 2026

Filofax to Fintech: The Evolution of UK Markets and the Investors Who Navigate Them

The markets may look familiar, but the rules you grew up with? Most no longer apply. In the 1980s, a sophisticated investor in the UK understood the game intimately: strong macro signals, long-term positioning, and an unwavering belief in the power of compounding. The playbook was clear; fundamentals ruled, gilts provided ballast, and equities delivered over time.

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04 February 2026

Equity Markets Run on Trust, not Confidence

If you’ve been investing for a while, this probably won’t sound radical: equity markets aren’t just discounting earnings. They’re discounting a whole set of assumptions that rarely get written down. Assumptions about institutions, behaviour and continuity.

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